On the day before the election, both President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are hoping for unprecedented voter turnout. So far we have already seen early voting reach two thirds the level of total votes cast in 2016, which already is a great sign for participation in this year’s election. According to FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Election tracker, an interactive site showing predictions by election analysts, Joe Biden is leading going into November 3rd with an 89 out of 100 chance of winning, whereas Donald Trump has a 10 out of 100 chance. On November 3rd and the days following, many people will have their eyes on what will likely be some of the most important swing states: Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas, and Ohio. These four states account for a total of 105 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the electoral college. When these states are called it is likely we will have a sound idea of who will emerge victorious in the 2020 Election.
Follow along with The Hilltopper’s Coordinator of Off-Campus News, Bryan Lavoie, and Coordinator of On-Campus News, Meghan Query, as they provide live reporting on the results as they come in
Texas, which hasn’t voted blue in a presidential election since voting for Carter in 1976, is listed as a tossup this year, with Biden polling just 1.5% behind Trump according to FiveThirtyEight. Texas has already had record voter turnout this election, with more people voting early than total voters in 2016. More democrats are voting early than republicans this year, so Texas is definitely a state to keep an eye on over the next couple of days, as it will likely play a significant role as a battleground in this election.
Ohio is also an important battleground this year, with Trump polling just 0.6% ahead of Joe Biden. No republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, so both candidates are hopeful that they will take Ohio’s 18 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania is arguably the most important battleground state in this election. Should Biden take Pennsylvania, as polls predict, FiveThirtyEight expects that his chances of winning go from 89/100 to 99/100. Should Trump take the state, as he did by 1.6% in 2016, his chances of winning a second term go from 10/100 to 60/100. Pennsylvania is expected to play a significant role this year, and may even be the deciding state in this election.
Politico has listed Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as the deciding states in this election. These 8 states hold 127 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the electoral college, and all 8 states are polling in favor of Joe Biden. All of these, except for Minnesota (which has voted exclusively for democratic candidates since 1976), voted for Trump in 2016.
Both candidates are hoping to take these crucial states in the electoral college this year. Keep an eye out for more updates on these battleground states as results start to come in from each of them later tonight, and as votes are counted over the next several days.
Just hours before the first polls are set to close, several states are reporting instances of voters receiving suspicious robocalls spreading false information about voting. Some calls told voters to “stay home, and stay safe” while others attempted to convince voters to vote tomorrow due to long lines at the polls. In recent weeks, other messages have been sent to voters from “Proud Boys” email addresses, attempting to intimidate voters into voting for Trump. Investigation into these issues are ongoing, and state officials are very concerned by these attempts at interfering in the election process this year. It is unclear whether any of these issues have impacted voter turnout, as several states are on track to see record turnout this year.
Be very wary of exit polls. As always take these polls with a grain of salt. With a record breaking number of mail in votes being tabulated throughout tonight and deeply into tomorrow morning, expect exit polls to swing in favor of Donald Trump as many in person voters today will be voting his way and many of the mail in votes will go to the former Vice President. Pay closer attention to specific precincts and counties reporting rather than any exit polls. The Hilltopper will be providing updates on the confirmed results from precincts rather than these exit polls.
Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Tennessee are going to Trump
Vermont, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware, and D.C. are going to Biden
Biden leads 44-42
Arkansas is projected Trump
New York is projected for Biden
Biden leads 73-48
Trump takes South Dakota
Biden takes Connecticut
Biden leads 80-51
Trump takes North Dakota and Alabama
Biden takes Colorado
89-63 for Biden
An Update on Ohio
A couple of hours into reporting, Biden holds a lead in the Electoral College with 89 electoral votes to Trump’s 63, and all eyes are on Ohio. In our first update, we mentioned that no republican has ever taken the presidency without winning Ohio. Prior to today, Trump was polling just ahead of Biden, and was counting on taking the state. According to FiveThirtyEight, without winning Ohio, Trump has a <1/100 chance of winning a second term. With 59% of the vote counted, Biden is in the lead by 3%, or about 130,000 votes. Trump was undoubtedly counting on taking Ohio’s 18 electoral votes in his reelection campaign. Tensions are high, as expected, this election night, and there is no sign of that changing anytime soon.
Louisiana and South Carolina go to Trump
New Hampshire goes to Biden
Biden leads 93-80
Trump is projected to take Utah, Kansas, and Nebraska-at-Large
Trump leads 95-93
Trump takes Missouri
Biden takes Illinois
Biden leads 113-105
Biden takes California, Oregon, and Washington
Trump takes Wyoming and Mississippi
Biden leads 187-114
Trump wins Idaho
Biden wins New Mexico
Biden leads 192-118
Trump takes Ohio
Biden takes Virginia
Biden leads 205-136
Trump takes Florida
Biden leads 205-165
Trump takes Iowa, Texas, and Montana
Biden takes Rhode Island and Minnesota
Biden maintains his lead, 220-213
The Electoral College has not shifted significantly in either direction, but President Trump has declared victory in his reelection campaign from the White House. This election is far from over, with several states not expecting to declare a winner until later in the week, possibly as late as Friday.
Biden takes one more electoral vote in Maine. Maine’s other 3 votes remain undecided.
Biden holds his lead 221-213
As we continue to wait for results in several key states, Biden takes Hawaii
Biden leads 225-213
Vote totals continue to come in, as officials in several states return to counting early this morning. There are still many votes to be counted, and results will likely continue to come in throughout the day.
As the day continues, the divide between the two candidates is narrowing in several key states. Michigan is expecting to have a full report at some point today, but it is unclear when we will get results in some other states.
Biden continues to lead, 225-213
Biden gains two more electoral votes from Maine and keeps his lead
Biden takes Wisconsin
He leads 237-213
Michigan called for Biden
Biden’s lead increases, 253-213
About 24 hours after most polls closed, election officials have not finished counting ballots in several key states. Going into the second night of counting ballots, Biden holds the lead in the Electoral College, as well as in Nevada and Arizona, both of which have not yet been called by ABC News. Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska, but his lead has been narrowing throughout the day. Results are expected to continue coming in throughout the night and into tomorrow, and some states are not expected to have full results until Friday.
Biden leads in the Electoral College, 253-214 after Trump picked up one vote from Maine earlier today.
After several days of counting votes, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris become President-Elect and Vice President-Elect, winning 290 votes of the 270 needed to win the Electoral College. Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina have not been officially called yet, with President Trump in the lead in Alaska and North Carolina, and Joe Biden in the lead in Georgia.
Biden wins, 290-214. 34 electoral votes remain.